Sometime ago my Policy Adviser, Samuel Cutler, wrote an article that was featured on this blog were he highlighted the use of sanctions designations as strategic communications. The basic idea is that designations are used not only to effectuate pressure upon a particular target to compel a change in behavior but also to send a message to a certain population or group. Last Thursday, we saw the United States Department of the Treasury and the United States Department of State engage in this phenomenon when they designated a number of parties pursuant to Executive Order 13645. It appears to have been no coincidence that the designations came one (1) hour and three (3) minutes prior to a Senate Banking Committee Hearing in which Undersecretary of State Wendy Sherman, and top sanctions cop, Undersecretary for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence David Cohen, were set to defend the deal reached with Iran last month and memorialized in the historic Joint Plan of Action.

To put this into context, much has been reported regarding Congress’ recent push for additional sanctions on Iran, and the Obama Administration’s insistence on Congress’ shelving any additional sanctions in order to allow the interim deal and diplomacy an opportunity to work. To counter Congress’ concerns, the message to Congress ever since the deal was reached has been to let them know that the sanctions that do remain in place will continue to be vigorously enforced. As such, and likely in an effort to proactively deflate any criticisms that such statements are just paying lip service to Congress, the Administration announced new sanctions designations right before two of the top sanctions officials were scheduled to address certain members of Congress on the deal. In short, it was sanctions designations as strategic communications in its purest form, and it appeared to have worked. The hearing was not particularly eventful and the day ended with a flurry of reports that there will be no new Congressional sanctions in 2013.

Then on Friday, ABC News reported that the talks taking place between the technical experts from Iran and the West on how the Joint Plan of Action would actually be implemented had stalled when the Iranian delegation walked out over the designations which took place on Thursday. Once again, sanctions designations as strategic communications. While those designations sent a message to the U.S. Congress in order to quell their concerns over the Joint Plan of Action, the designations also sent a message to Iran that the U.S. was acting out of step with the spirit of the deal that had been reached. Of course, the Obama Administration immediately responded that there is no connection between the two events and that the talks concluded when they had reached a natural stopping point.

Whether the Iranians were actually mislead by the U.S. is arguable. It seems pretty clear from what has been said publicly that the deal would not go into effect until Iran took affirmative steps towards implementing their side of the deal. That said the designations may not have been immediately necessary had the U.S. Congress not been breathing down the neck of the Administration about new sanctions and being so openly critical about the Joint Plan of Action. I believe the thinking may been that the new designations would appease the Congress for the time being and while it may temporarily tick off the Iranians, would not be a complete deal breaker in the manner that a new round of Congressional sanctions would be. My point here is that powerful members of Congress’ insistence on guiding sanctions policy towards Iran may have caused a minor step back in diplomacy, though such step back was wrought as an effect of having to pander to them as opposed to anything they actually did. Perhaps this was their plan all along…or perhaps too many episodes of House of Cards has me believing Congress is far more calculating than it actually is.

All that aside, it is now being reported that Secretary of State John Kerry has called Foreign Minister Javad Zarif and the two have agreed to continue the talks. At the end of the day, the powers to be on both sides seem to want this deal to happen, and although there are still factions in both the U.S. and Iran who would rather see a confrontation than a collaboration as part of resolving the issue, it does look as if we’ll see at least an interim deal on the Iran nuclear issue come to fruition.